QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 14 июля 2024

Опубликовано: 13 июля 2024 в 1243 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40713
Состояние солнечной активности на 13 июля 2024, 1241UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Слабая магнитная буря (A>=30, K=5)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 13 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 208 / AP-индекс: 007
Прогноз на 14 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 208 / AP-индекс: 022
Прогноз на 15 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 208 / AP-индекс: 010
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and an M1.4-flare, peak time 03:18 UTC on July 13, associated with the largest and most complex active region NOAA AR 3738 (beta-gamma). This region was responsible for most of the registered flaring activity. There are currently eight numbered active regions on the visible solar disc, including the newly numbered NOAA AR 3748 (beta). Two new regions (possibly returning regions NOAA AR 3719 and NOAA AR 3720) have rotated onto disc from behind the south-east limb. NOAA AR 3743 (beta) has slightly decreased its magnetic complexity and produced isolated high C-class flaring together with NOAA AR 3740 (beta), which is now rotating behind the west limb. The remaining active regions have remained mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with 60% chance for M-class flaring and 15% chances for isolated X-class flaring. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity weakly varied between 308 km/s and 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field registered a maximum value of 5.9 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to register moderate disturbances later on July 13 and July 14 with anticipated high speed stream arrival related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on July 10. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally mostly quiet with a couple of hours with unsettled periods registered over Belgium. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated for late July 13 and July 14 with possible isolated minor storms due to anticipated high speed stream arrival. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 192,
получено на основе анализа результатов 10 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 12 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 235
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 210
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 008
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 007
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 006
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 172,
получено на основе анализа результатов 13 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
13 0255 0318 0336 ////// M1.4 85/3738