QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 19 июля 2024

Опубликовано: 18 июля 2024 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 40718
Состояние солнечной активности на 18 июля 2024, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 18 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 209 / AP-индекс: 008
Прогноз на 19 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 200 / AP-индекс: 015
Прогноз на 20 июля 2024: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 190 / AP-индекс: 008
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate with two double M2 flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 8) emitted an M2.0 at 17 Jul 19:58 UTC and NOAA AR 3751 (magnetic type Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group no 12) produced an M2.2 at 18 Jul 10:14 UTC. For the next 24 hours further isolated M-class activity is likely, either from NOAA AR 3751 or the group of NOAA AR 3743, 3758, 3745, 3747. There is also a small chance of an X-class flare. Coronal mass ejections: No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. Solar wind: Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained typical of the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 and 400 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 7 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -5 and 5 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective in the next 24 hours and cause a significant disturbance. Geomagnetism: During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2), while locally they had a three-hour period of unsettled conditions (K BEL 1-3). They are expected to rise to unsettled or possible active levels due to the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so, although there is a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 287,
получено на основе анализа результатов 22 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 17 Jul 2024
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 224
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 009
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 007
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 007
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 278,
получено на основе анализа результатов 27 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
17 1940 1951 1953 N11W46 M1.2 1N 08/3753
17 1953 1958 2004 ////// M2.0 08/3753
18 1004 1014 1020 ////// M2.2 12/3751
18 1020 1027 1031 ////// M2.0 ///////