QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 6 ноября 2025

Опубликовано: 05 ноября 2025 в 1241 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 51105
Состояние солнечной активности на 05 ноября 2025, 1240UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 05 ноября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 169 / AP-индекс: 013
Прогноз на 06 ноября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 176 / AP-индекс: 016
Прогноз на 07 ноября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 180 / AP-индекс: 019
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 2 X-class flares and 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a X1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5922) peaking on November 04 at 17:34 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). The second-largest flare was a X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 5923) peaking on November 04 at 22:01 UTC, which was produced by a region over the East limb. A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) is the largest and most magnetically complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta) region on disk and produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in LASCO-C2 data around 00:52 UTC on November 04 show that it is not expected to impact the Earth. A halo CME (SIDC CME 593) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 around 17:24 UTC on November 04. This CME is associated with a X1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5922) and SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). The CME has an estimated speed of around 1297 km/s. A glancing blow arrival of the CME is expected at 02:27 UT on November 07. Coronal holes: A recurring large coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 116 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity), which first reached the central meridian on November 03 is continuing to cross the central meridian. It’s associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth on November 06 (Other crossing times: October 08, September 10, August 15, July 20, June 22, May 26). Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, slow solar wind conditions were recorded. The solar wind speed ranged from 349 km/s to 424 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 to 7 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum of -7 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed due to the likely glancing blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on November 03 and the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 116. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally Quiet to unsettled (Kp 1-3 & K BEL 1-3). Active to minor storm conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux became elevated but has remained below the 10 pfu threshold level and is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 fluctuated around the 1000 pfu threshold at the start of the reporting period and went below the threshold at 08:20 UTC on November 05. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to stay below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to return to nominal levels over the next 24 hours.Опубликовано: 05 ноября 2025 в 1241 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 51105
Состояние солнечной активности на 05 ноября 2025, 1240UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Возмущенное (A>=20, K=4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 05 ноября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 169 / AP-индекс: 013
Прогноз на 06 ноября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 176 / AP-индекс: 016
Прогноз на 07 ноября 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 180 / AP-индекс: 019
Комментарий (на английском языке):
Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the
past 24 hours, with 2 X-class flares and 2 M-class flares identified. The
largest flare was a X1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5922) peaking on November 04 at
17:34 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region
4274). The second-largest flare was a X1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 5923) peaking
on November 04 at 22:01 UTC, which was produced by a region over the East
limb. A total of 5 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over
the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) is the
largest and most magnetically complex (Beta-Gamma-Delta) region on disk and
produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Solar flaring
activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class
flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.
Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
seen in LASCO-C2 data around 00:52 UTC on November 04 show that it is not
expected to impact the Earth. A halo CME (SIDC CME 593) was detected in
SOHO/LASCO-C2 around 17:24 UTC on November 04. This CME is associated with
a X1.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5922) and SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active
Region 4274). The CME has an estimated speed of around 1297 km/s. A
glancing blow arrival of the CME is expected at 02:27 UT on November 07.
Coronal holes: A recurring large coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 116
(equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity), which first reached the
central meridian on November 03 is continuing to cross the central
meridian. It’s associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at
Earth
on November 06 (Other crossing times: October 08, September 10, August 15,
July 20, June 22, May 26).
Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, slow solar wind conditions were
recorded. The solar wind speed ranged from 349 km/s to 424 km/s. The total
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 5 to 7 nT, with the Bz reaching a
minimum of -7 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed
away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. In the next 24
hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed due to
the likely glancing blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on November 03
and the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with SIDC Coronal Hole
116.
Геомагнитное поле:: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were
globally and locally Quiet to unsettled (Kp 1-3 & K BEL 1-3). Active to
minor storm conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.
Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux became
elevated but has remained below the 10 pfu threshold level and is expected
to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours.
Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by
GOES 18 and GOES 19 fluctuated around the 1000 pfu threshold at the start
of the reporting period and went below the threshold at 08:20 UTC on
November 05. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to stay below
the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence
was at moderate levels, it is expected to return to nominal levels over the
next 24 hours.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : ///, BASED ON /// STATIONS.
Солнечные индексы за 04 Nov 2025
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 092
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 159
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 023
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 010
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 011
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 086,
получено на основе анализа результатов 27 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
04 1715 1734 1751 N26E63 X1.8 1B 89/4274 VI/2III/2IV/1
04 2145 2201 2211 ////// X1.1 /////// IV/1
04 2233 2244 2256 N22E36 M1.7 1 88/4272 III/2
05 1036 1119 1143 ////// M7.4 89/4274