QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 30 декабря 2025

Опубликовано: 29 декабря 2025 в 1240 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 51229
Состояние солнечной активности на 29 декабря 2025, 1239UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: Спокойное состояние (A<20 and K<4)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 29 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 195 / AP-индекс: 010
Прогноз на 30 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 203 / AP-индекс: 017
Прогноз на 31 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 210 / AP-индекс: 038
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 4 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an M4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6518) peaking on December 28 at 22:39 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 735 (NOAA Active Region 4317). SIDC Sunspot Groups 744 and 745 (NOAA Active Regions 4324 and 4325, respectively) are two of the other complex regions on disk (Beta-Gamma) and both also produced low level M-class flares and were growing over the period. SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA Active Region 4321, magnetic type Beta Delta) was quiet and is now approaching the west solar limb. The remaining regions are simple and mostly quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) directed to the north-west, with a width of approximately 120 degrees and speed of around 450 km/s, was detected in LASCO-C2 data from 23:00 UTC on December 28. This CME (SIDC CME 616) was associated with an M4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6518) peaking on December 28 at 22:39 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 735 (NOAA Active Region 4317). This CME is currently being modelled, but initial analysis suggests this would likely have a glancing blow arrival at Earth early on January 01. No other Earth-directed (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 140 (mid-latitude, negative polarity) continues to transit the central meridian since December 28. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed decreased from 480 km/s to around 415 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 3 and 8 nT, and Bz had a minimum of -5nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was mostly in the positive sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. From late on December 30, enhanced solar wind conditions are possible due the CIR and high speed stream arrival associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 140 (negative polarity) which began to cross the central meridian on December 28. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally (NOAA Kp 1 to 3) and locally (K BEL 1 to 3) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold for past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 141,
получено на основе анализа результатов 08 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 28 Dec 2025
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): ///
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 188
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 019
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 010
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 009
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 152,
получено на основе анализа результатов 22 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
28 2103 2113 2123 S07E47 M1.3 SF ///4325
28 2201 2239 2254 N08W31 M4.2 1F 48/4317
28 2357 0002 0007 ////// M2.2 ///4324
29 0634 0651 0656 S10E43 M1.0 SF 53/4325