QRZ.RU EXPRESS от 31 декабря 2025

Опубликовано: 30 декабря 2025 в 1231 UTC
SIDC URSIGRAM 51230
Состояние солнечной активности на 30 декабря 2025, 1230UT
Прогноз SIDC
Солнечные вспышки. Ожидаются вспышки класса M (вероятность >=50%)
Геомагнитное поле: : Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)
Солнечные протоны: Спокойное состояние
Прогноз на 30 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 204 / AP-индекс: 014
Прогноз на 31 декабря 2025: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 210 / AP-индекс: 042
Прогноз на 01 января 2026: Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 203 / AP-индекс: 018
Комментарий (на английском языке): Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an C6.4 flare peaking on December 29 at 20:40 UTC. There are currently 9 numbered regions on the disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 745 (NOAA Active Region 4325) grew over the period and has a Beta-Delta magnetic configuration. Two of the other most complex regions, SIDC Sunspot Groups 744 and 740 (NOAA Active Regions 4324 and 4321, respectively) were stable but produced C-class flares. SIDC Sunspot Group 735 (NOAA Active Region 4317, magnetic type beta) was quiet and stable. Three new active regions emerged and were numbered, but these were simple and mostly quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: The partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) reported yesterday, seen in LASCO-C2 data from 23:00 UTC on December 28, has been analysed and a glancing blow is expected at Earth from January 01. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Coronal holes: A small positive polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere (SIDC Coronal Hole 143) began to transit the central meridian on December 30. Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 380 and 440 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 3 and 8 nT, and Bz had a minimum of -5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). From early on December 31, enhanced solar wind conditions are expected due the high speed stream arrival associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 140 (negative polarity) which began to cross the central meridian on December 28. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels globally (NOAA Kp 1 to 2) and locally (K BEL 1 to 2) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for Dec 30 and from December 31 minor storm conditions are expected with possible moderate storm intervals possible, due to the expected high speed stream arrival. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold for past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours but is expected to decrease from December 31, due to the anticipated high speed stream arrival. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.Сегодняшнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 136,
получено на основе анализа результатов 16 станций наблюдения.
Солнечные индексы за 29 Dec 2025
Число Вольфа по данным обсерватории Катания (IT9): 150
Солнечный поток в диапазоне 10см: 196
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Chambon-la-Foret (F): 010
A-индекс по данным обсерватории Wingst (DL): 008
Планетарный А-индекс Ap: 008
Вчерашнее значение числа солнечных пятен (International Sunspot Number): 145,
получено на основе анализа результатов 16 станций наблюдения.
Прошедшие события на Солнце:
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
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